Durum Harvest Update From Minot Milling

Dec 6

The 2022 durum harvest was a rebound year for the Northern Plains’ farmers. Production returned to normal yields and above-average quality. The harvest was a relief for the U.S. pasta industry, as North American durum stocks had dropped to a record low level. Last year’s drought-stricken crop continues impacting the U.S. market today, resulting in tight supplies and near record-high market values. In order to maintain supply of high-quality durum, the U.S. milling industry imported 40 million bushels from Canada last year.
However, things are looking up. The 2022 U.S. durum harvest came in at 64 million bushels, up 68% compared to only 38 million bushels last year. The 2022 Canadian durum harvest was 3.5 times larger than the U.S. harvest at 225 million bushels, up 100% over last year.
2023 U.S. domestic durum usage is projects to increase 16% compared to 2022, and exports are projected to increase by 78%. Canadian imports are key to replenishing U.S. durum stocks to normal levels. In response, the U.S. pasta industry and Philadelphia Macaroni Company are feeling much better about durum supply and market volatility going into 2023 than we did in 2022. We are happy to see a stronger durum crop, but we still see low carryover levels and larger demand forecasted.